Polymarket User Wins $1M+ Betting on Google Search Trends

Polymarket is at the center of controversy after a user made over $1 million betting on its Google Search markets. The incident has sparked speculations of insider trading on the blockchain-based prediction platform.

The user known as AlphaRaccoon made $1.14 million in 24 hours by betting on Google Search contracts.

User Accurately Predicts 22 Out of 23 Placed Bets in Google Search Markets

While the over $1 million in profits is significant, it was the high level of accuracy for AlphaRaccoon that first caught people’s attention. The user correctly predicted the outcome of 22 out of 23 contracts in the Google Search markets.

This immediately raised eyebrows on X. For instance, AlphaRaccoon correctly predicted that d4vd will be the most searched person on Google this year. They also rightly predicted that Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar would make the top 5, but President Donald Trump would not.

What further raised suspicions was that the user correctly predicted results that many consider surprising. The leaked Google Year in Search 2025 report showed that Anora was the most searched film, and ARC Raiders was the most searched game. Other surprising results include Terrence Crawford as the most searched athlete and Mikey Madison as the most searched actor.

Interestingly, AlphaRaccoon’s position increased to $3.9 million after the leak. An analysis of the user’s previous trades also showed that they correctly predicted the release of Gemini 3.0 and made over $150,000 in profits at the time.

Meanwhile, one user noted that AlphaRaccoon deposited $3 million into their accounts on Friday to start placing the bets. Almost everyone agrees that the user is a Google insider, with some noting it might be a senior developer.

Any suspicions about insider trading might have been confirmed by the user changing their name from AlphaRaccoon to OxafEe. Some users noted that this could be an attempt by the user to hide their tracks. However, Polymarket is blockchain-based, which means onchain transparency.

Experts Warn Insider Trading Inevitable in Prediction Market

Meanwhile, the incident has once again raised concerns about the fairness of the prediction market. Many users believe that the sector enables insider trading easily, with some saying this is part of the purpose of such platforms.

According to technology writer Gergely Orosz, anyone who is not an insider and participating in such a market is giving away free money.

Orosz said:

He added that insider trading is not the only issue with prediction market platforms, noting that front-running and wash trading also occur. However, some users were quick to point out that Kalshi is regulated.

Meanwhile, others have noted that the risk of insider trading for event contracts is why most bettors prefer sports and politics markets. These markets are more challenging to manipulate, with sports accounting for over 80% of weekly notional volume on Kalshi.