XRP Price Prediction as ETF Inflows Dive, Open Interest Subdued

XRP price remains in a deep bear market after plunging by over 40% from its all-time high of $3.66. It was trading at $2.0758 on Wednesday, December 8. Consequently, some fundamental metrics, such as open interest and ETF inflows, remained subdued.

XRP Price Technicals Point to More Downside if it Remains Below Key Support

The daily timeframe chart shows that the XRP price has been under pressure in the past few months. It continues forming a series of lower lows and lower highs. Each attempt to rebound has consistently found substantial resistance.

Ripple price has now dropped to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. It is drawn by connecting the lowest swing in 2024 and the highest level this year.

The coin also formed a death cross pattern on November 6 as the 50-day and 200-day EMAs crossed each other. This crossover is one of the riskiest patterns in technical analysis. The last time this pattern formed was in 2022, and the coin subsequently plunged by double digits.

XRP price has dropped below the Supertrend indicator. At the same time, the top oscillators, such as the RSI and the MACD, have remained subdued over the past few weeks.

The XRP price prediction remains bearish as long as it trades below the descending trendline. It also remains under pressure from moving averages and Supertrend indicators.

If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level at $1.6435. A drop below that level will likely indicate further downside, potentially to the psychological level at $1.500.

A rebound above the descending trendline invalidates the bearish outlook. It signals more gains with resistance at $2.50.

Spot XRP ETF Inflows Lost Momentum

One potential reason why the XRP price may drop is that demand for the recently launched Ripple ETFs has been subdued this week.

Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that these funds generated $8.73 million in inflows on Wednesday, representing a 77% decrease. It was the worst performance since November 18, when the funds had $8.32 million in inflows.

Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF recorded $2.8 million in inflows. Grayscale’s fund attracted $581k, and Bitwise’s fund gained $671k. Franklin Templeton’s fund reported no inflows.

On the positive side, daily or weekly fluctuations of ETF inflows are a normal occurrence. Also,the current data does not imply that demand is fully waning.

Indeed, according to SoSoValue, XRP ETFs have never had a day of outflows since their launch in November this year. This is a sharp contrast to Bitcoin, whose ETFs shed over $3 billion in assets in three weeks.

Ripple Futures Open Interest is Subdued

Meanwhile, data compiled by CoinGlass shows that activity in the futures market remains subdued this month. The daily open interest stood at over $3.7 billion on Wednesday, a level it has maintained for the past few weeks.

Futures open interest is a key metric that tracks the open call and put options contracts that have not been settled. A low figure indicates that investors are avoiding the use of leverage to open positions.

It’s a situation that has accelerated following the significant liquidation event that occurred on October 10 this year.

Additional data indicates that XRP’s funding rate has remained under pressure, moving sideways over the past few months. Separately, there are signs that the Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin growth has stagnated.

The circulating supply has increased by 23% over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, transactions dropped 46% to 424k, and adjusted volume fell 60% to $2.8 billion.

Taken together, there is  a likelihood that the XRP price will have a bearish breakout in the coming weeks,