Bitcoin Price Prediction: If BTC Fails to Breach $81K, It Can See 40% Drop

Bitcoin price has reached its first major technical test after gaining more than 20% during the latest recovery. BTC climbed above $81,000 on Aug. 25 before sellers pushed the cryptocurrency back below $80,000.

The rejection puts the $80,000–$83,000 region back in focus after a similar ceiling capped Bitcoin in May. Analysts now disagree over whether the move represents a temporary pullback or another lower high within the broader bear-market structure.

Bitcoin Price Faces Major Resistance At $81,000

On August 25, Bitcoin attempted to surge past the $80,500 level. However, it faced a major rejection there and is once again trading at $78,965 levels as of press time. Analysts are closely watching the development for the next price action.

Analyst Crypto Patel said Bitcoin could face further downside after being rejected from the $81,300 level. Patel noted that BTC is trading within a major daily bearish order block between $80,000 and $83,000. He also highlighted an inverted hammer on the daily chart, which could signal a potential bearish reversal.

According to Patel, Bitcoin must secure a higher-timeframe close above $83,000 to invalidate the bearish setup. If the rejection persists, he expects the liquidity below to become the next target, with $ 50,000-$ 55,000 as his major downside range.

Patel identified $83,000 as the key structural decision point for Bitcoin’s next major move.

Bitcoin Price Might See Next Bear Trend Soon

Crypto analyst Cyclop said Bitcoin could remain in a bearish trend if the asset fails to reclaim and hold above the $83,000 level. If BTC remains below this threshold, Cyclop expects a potential decline toward $50,000 by November.

However, a sustained move above $83,000 would change his outlook. In that scenario, he said he would look to begin accumulating Bitcoin around $69,000. Last year in October 2025, the analyst claims to have accurately predicted the BTC cycle top at $126,000. This time as well, he remains confident regarding the bottom.

Citing data from Glassnode, crypto analyst Ted Pillows noted that $5.2 billion in short positions would be liquidated if Bitcoin price reaches $85,000. Meanwhile, a decline to $75,000 could trigger approximately $4.6 billion in long liquidations. Thus, there’s a major concentration of leverage around the current Bitcoin price levels.

Bitcoin Needs Spot Demand To Sustain Rally

Popular analyst Daan Crypto Trades said that Bitcoin’s recent rally was largely fueled by a short squeeze.

Since reaching its initial high on Friday, actual accumulation has remained relatively stable, while spot trading volumes have stayed elevated. Meanwhile, open interest has continued to decline, suggesting limited appetite for additional leveraged positions.

Daan said continued spot and ETF inflows, combined with Bitcoin holding around current levels, could provide an important signal in the coming days.

With short positions already squeezed, he said Bitcoin now needs strong spot buying pressure to sustain the rally. Spot demand has remained present, but the price must continue following through to prevent momentum from stalling.