Bitcoin Price to Hit $1.6M by 2036? Bitwise Warns of Major Risks

Bitcoin price could reach $1.6 million by 2036, according to a new Bitwise Asset Management forecast. The firm raised its previous $1.3 million target despite Bitcoin‘s sharp correction in 2026.

Its Oct. 28 report projects 34.3% compound annual growth over the next decade. However, Bitwise also identified technological and regulatory risks that could undermine its forecast.

Bitwise Expects Bitcoin to Be the Best-Performing Asset

According to Bitwise analysts, Bitcoin will be the best performer in the next decade. They cited current macroeconomic conditions, particularly rising sovereign debt in the US and globally, as well as weakening USD dominance.

The report noted that macroeconomic trends have pushed investors towards hard assets, with Bitcoin a major beneficiary. In the past five years, Bitcoin has been the best-performing asset, with a 1,069% gain, followed by Gold at 174.01%.

However, the analysts also cited the positive regulatory environment, best reflected in the Trump administration’s treatment of the industry. Even outside the US, several jurisdictions, such as Hong Kong, the UK, and the Middle East, also have greater regulatory clarity.

This, in turn, has opened the pathway for institutional adoption. As the report noted, almost all major financial institutions in the US have a crypto initiative.

The analysts believe a mix of these factors will drive demand, which, in turn, will translate into higher prices.

Based on the prediction, Bitwise expects a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% for Bitcoin over the next 10 years. This is lower than the 63.5% rate in the past ten years.

Analysts Warn About Quantum Computing Risks for Bitcoin

Despite bullish sentiment, the Bitwise report highlights risks investors must consider. One of the key risks identified was technical and quantum risk, noting that Bitcoin is a technology that comes with inherent risks.

“For instance, the core technology behind bitcoin and many bitcoin wallets could be at risk if there are rapid advances in quantum computing,” the report stated.

Even without quantum computing, Bitwise analysts believe AI-driven advancements in mathematics could also impact Bitcoin. They noted that the Bitcoin blockchain would inevitably have to upgrade to a new quantum-resistant or maths-resistant cryptography to address these risks.

Besides the technical risks, the report also noted regulatory concerns and Bitcoin’s recency. While the crypto industry currently enjoys a hospitable regulatory environment, that certainty is not guaranteed.

The failure of Congress to pass the Clarity Act means that most crypto rules in the US are based on federal agency regulations. A change in administration could turn things around and impact the regulatory environment.

Meanwhile, the analysts noted that Bitcoin’s limited track record is also a risk. The flagship crypto asset has not existed for more than two decades, with tracing and institutional adoption even more recent.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve substantial volatility and potential losses. Long-term forecasts are uncertain, and readers should conduct independent research before investing.