Top Catalysts that Will Move NVIDIA Stock After Earnings

NVIDIA stock price jumped by over 1% on Friday as investors bought the dip and as anticipation of the second quarter earnings report rose. NVDA was trading at $178, down slightly from the year-to-date high of $184. This article looks at the top catalysts that will move its stock after earnings.

NVIDIA Stock to React to Headline Revenue and Earnings Growth Figures

The first main catalyst that will move the NVIDIA stock price will be its headline revenue and earnings numbers, which are the first ones that investors see.

Data compiled by Yahoo Finance shows that Wall Street analysts expect the company’s revenue to come in at $46 billion, a 53% surge from the same period last year. The same is true with another survey by Bloomberg.

Judging by NVIDIA’s history, the company will probably publish better results than expected. In the past, its results have tended to be above the target by between $1 billion and $2 billion. As such, it is likely that the revenue figure will be between $47 billion and $48 billion.

Analysts also expect NVIDIA’s earnings per share (EPS) to rise by 48% YoY to $1.01. Still, Donald Trump’s decision to block sales of H20 chips to the Chinese market could impact the earnings report. In its recent report, AMD reported an $800 million hit on this issue in Q2, and NVIDIA has warned of an $8 billion hit.

Another key data point to watch in its earnings will be NVIDIA’s share buyback, which continues to reduce its outstanding shares. It launched a $50 billion buyback in the last earnings, following another $25 billion in 2023.

NVDA Stock to React to Q2 and FY Guidance

While the headline figures will be important for the NVIDIA stock price, their limitation is that they are backward-looking. As such, investors always focus on the company’s forward guidance, which includes the management’s judgments on the current feel of the business.

The upcoming guidance will be important because it comes after Donald Trump allowed the company to ship its chips to China. China has not been welcoming to the act, with officials investigating whether the chips have a backdoor that the US government could use.

Officials have also recommended that local companies not to use these chips because they are inferior to local competition. As a result, NVIDIA said that it would not sell them to China. Instead, the company is talking with the administration to allow it to build and sell more powerful chips to China.

A survey of 41 analysts shows that the average estimate is that its third-quarter revenue will be $52.7 billion, a 50% surge from what it made last year.

The survey also shows that the average revenue estimate is that its annual revenue will be $202 billion, up by 55% from what it made in 2024. The annual EPS is expected to jump by 45% to $4.36.

NVIDIA’s earnings guidance will provide hints on whether the AI boom is continuing, a move that will justify its valuation.

NVIDIA Stock Price Analysis: Will it Hit $200 or Crash?

Wall Street analysts are upbeat about NVIDIA stock ahead of its earnings. The average stock target is $194, higher than the current $177. In a recent note, analysts at Stifel boosted its target to $212 from $202, while Baird moved it to $225, citing the GB200 momentum.

Analysts at other companies like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America see the stock surging to $250 over time.

Short-term technicals are bullish on the NVDA stock price. It formed a doji candlestick pattern on August 20, followed by the bullish engulfing pattern.

NVIDIA has also formed a bullish flag pattern, and is above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). These technicals point to a rebound, potentially to $200 after earnings. Such a move will push its market capitalization from the current $4.32 trillion to almost $5 trillion.

However, a drop below the important support level at $168 will invalidate the bullish NVIDIA stock price forecast and point to more downside, potentially to $150.