Bitcoin Price Closes September In Green, Q4 Rally Hopes Build

Bitcoin price ended September and the third quarter in the green, even as the rally lost momentum. BTC price rose by 5.6% in September. This pared back some of the losses it made in August when it plunged by 6.40%. These gains brought the third quarter’s returns to 6.3%.

Bitcoin Price Pattern Points to a Q4 Rally

Technical analysis suggests further gains in the fourth quarter. The weekly chart shows that the coin bottomed at below $16,000 in 2022 and then started rebounding.

This rebound was not in a straight line as it suffered some pullbacks along the way. For example, it crashed by 32% from its peak in March to its trough in August of last year.

It recently plunged by 32% from its highest level in May to its lowest point in April and then bounced back. Therefore, the recent 13% pullback seems modest, which may lead to a strong rebound.

Bitcoin price has moved above the top of the trading range of the Murrey Math Lines tool. This means that it still has more room to run before reaching the extreme overshoot of this tool. It is at $175,000.

The coin has also remained above the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). Staying above these averages indicates that bulls remain in control.

Additionally, the coin has formed a bullish flag pattern. This consists of a vertical line and a subsequent consolidation or pullback. This pattern often leads to more upside.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is that the BTC price continues to rise in the fourth quarter. The initial target is the all-time high of $124,200. After that, attention shifts to the strong pivot reverse level indicated by the Murrey Math Lines tool.

The bullish Bitcoin price forecast hinges on holding above the $100,000 support and resistance (S/R) pivot point. If it drops below this level, the outlook turns bearish.

Fed Rate Cuts Could Fuel Bitcoin Price Rally in Q4

BTC price has several catalysts in the fourth quarter. One of them is the Federal Reserve. It has hinted that it will continue cutting interest rates at its upcoming meetings.

The bank slashed rates by 0.25% in its September meeting, bringing the benchmark to between 4.0% and 4.25%. It was its third cut in the currency cycle. Officials cited the worsening labor market as the reason for the interest rate cut.

Polymarket data shows that traders anticipate a rate cut in October and another one in December. The odds of more cuts in 2026 are high because Trump is expected to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends.

Bitcoin and other high-risk assets, such as the stock market, tend to perform well when the Fed is cutting rates.

BTC ETF Inflows and Retirement Fund Investments

Bitcoin price rose in the third quarter as institutional demand increased. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs had over $9 Billion in inflows in the third quarter. This brought the total assets to over $150 billion. These holdings now represent about 6.60% of the market capitalization.

Bitcoin ETF inflows are expected to continue increasing in the coming months. This trend reflects growing investor confidence in it as a viable alternative asset.

Another notable catalyst is that Donald Trump has advocated for allowing retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies and private equity assets. Such a move will lead to billions of dollars being channelled to Bitcoin.

Bitcoin price is having a good year, despite the recent pullback. This recovery is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which is historically its strongest quarter of the year. BTC price has traditionally rallied in most fourth quarters, and this one will be no exception.

This Q4 is packed with powerful market catalysts. Key drivers include Federal Reserve rate cuts, ETF approvals for alternative cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, and rising demand from retirement funds.