Key Insights:
- Solana whale lost $7.48M after selling 108,688 SOL near yearly lows.
- SOL remains in a descending channel, facing resistance at $128 and $134.
- On-chain revenue and TVL dropped 93% and 50%, weakening Solana’s fundamentals.
A Solana (SOL) whale liquidated 108,688 SOL for $12.2 million in USD Coin (USDC) at $112.3 per token, almost matching the day’s lowest price. The move resulted in a staggering $7.48 million loss, as the whale had withdrawn these tokens from Coinbase 11 months earlier when SOL traded at $181.
The sale reflects broader market uncertainty as Solana’s price fluctuates amid a wider crypto sell-off. While the token has rebounded to $123, concerns linger over its long-term trajectory, given recent bearish indicators and declining network fundamentals.
Solana Battles Key Levels as Market Struggles
SOL’s price action remains volatile despite reclaiming $123. The asset, currently the sixth-largest cryptocurrency, briefly dropped to $113—the lowest level in over a year—before rebounding. Market watchers are debating whether the worst is over, as Bitcoin also dipped below $80,000 before recovering.
According to CoinMarketCap, SOL’s market capitalization stands at $63.3 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume surge of 48.6% to $6.3 billion. While this suggests renewed investor interest, analysts caution that key technical levels remain in play.
A potential death cross is forming—a bearish chart pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. Historically, Solana’s last death cross in Sept. 2024 preceded a rally to $294 within two months. If this trend repeats, a rebound could follow, though broader market conditions remain uncertain.
SOL Price Falls Below Realized Price, Raising Bearish Concerns
According to Glassnode data, on March 11, SOL fell below its realized price of $134 for the first time in almost three years. The realized price represents the average purchase price of all Solana tokens in circulation. When an asset trades below this level, it signals that many holders are at a loss, potentially triggering further sell pressure.
SOL last breached this level in March 2022, leading to a prolonged downtrend. While the asset eventually recovered in Nov. 2023, similar drops in 2020 and 2022 sparked months of price weakness before any recovery.
Further complicating matters, Solana’s on-chain revenue and total value locked (TVL) have plummeted. DefiLlama data shows that Solana’s network revenue has collapsed 93% since January, falling from a record $55.3 million to just $4 million last week. TVL has also declined by 50% in the same period, from over $12 billion to $6.4 billion.
Memecoin Mania Fades, Weakening Solana’s Ecosystem
Solana’s recent price turbulence comes as memecoin trading—once the blockchain’s primary revenue driver—declines sharply. The platform’s memecoin frenzy peaked in January, driven by the launch of tokens tied to Donald Trump and his wife Melania.
According to VanEck, memecoin trading accounted for nearly 80% of Solana’s revenues at its peak. However, since Trump’s TRUMP token and MELANIA coin launched, both have collapsed, with TRUMP down 86% from its peak and MELANIA plummeting 95%.
Daily revenue on Pump.fun, Solana’s top memecoin trading platform, fell 95% from $15 million in January to just $800,000 in early March, per Dune Analytics. As memecoin trading slows, Solana’s reliance on this revenue stream is becoming apparent.
With Solana’s on-chain fundamentals weakening and technical risks mounting, traders are watching key price levels. The descending channel in SOL’s price action has resistance at $134 and $130, with support at $120 and $115.
If SOL holds above $120 and breaks past $128 with volume, a rally toward $134 could follow. However, failure to maintain these levels could result in further downside pressure, especially if broader market conditions remain shaky.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
