Key Insights:
- Whales added over 100,000 BTC since March.
- $90K short squeeze could drive breakout.
- Bollinger Bands hint at a forming BTC bottom.
Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders have absorbed over 100,000 BTC since March, defying weak retail demand and stagnant network activity. Data from Caueconomy suggests that wallets linked to institutional players have ramped up accumulation despite persistent uncertainty in the market.
This trend highlights a clear divide in market behavior. While smaller investors remain cautious, large participants are taking advantage of lower prices to reduce their average acquisition cost.
Whale Reserves Grow While Retail Interest Slows
Between Dec. and Feb., whale wallets remained mostly inactive. That trend reversed in March. Since then, large BTC holders have accumulated more than 100,000 BTC, according to data shared by Caueconomy.
These whales—often referred to as “smart money”—appear unfazed by recent price swings. They continue to buy into zones typically marked by institutional interest. In contrast, retail traders have pulled back, with overall on-chain activity showing no major uptick.
“Despite low activity on the Bitcoin network and weak retail demand, whale reserves have continued to grow,” Caueconomy wrote on X. The statement points to long-term conviction among larger market players, especially during times of declining prices.
This divergence is now shaping short-term market sentiment and long-term positioning, with whales potentially preparing for a future exit during the next rally.
Technicals Signal Bounce Potential as Shorts Cluster Around $90K
Traders tracking price behavior remain split, but several patterns now suggest a bounce may be underway.
Merlijn, a pseudonymous trader on X, said that Bitcoin has confirmed a “double bottom” around $78,700. “Now we’re charging at $86K. Smash that level… and things get wild,” he posted.
Other market participants noted that short interest is concentrated near $90,000. One X user warned, “$7+ BILLION WORTH OF $BTC SHORTS WILL BE LIQUIDATED AT $90,000.”
Such high concentration increases the likelihood of a short squeeze if the price breaks key resistance. In that scenario, forced buy-backs could amplify upside momentum.
Meanwhile, Mikybull Crypto posted that Bitcoin’s weekly chart is shaping into a falling wedge—a historically bullish pattern. He cited a breakout target of $99,000.
However, these setups require follow-through, and many traders await confirmation from broader market signals.
Bitcoin News: Bollinger Bands Hint at Market Bottom, But Risks Remain
John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility metric, pointed to a possible bottom forming on BTC’s weekly chart.
BTC/USD 1-W price chart. Source: X
In an Apr. 10 post, Bollinger noted that his proprietary “%b” indicator is showing signs of a classic “W” bottom. “Still needs confirmation,” he wrote, cautioning against premature conclusions.
The “%b” metric measures closing prices relative to band positioning, and is often used to detect trend reversals. A validated “W” pattern could indicate that Bitcoin’s recent price zone may serve as a long-term floor.
Despite this, Bollinger stressed that the current structure has not confirmed a reversal. BTC/USD continues to trade near the lower band, with the middle band acting as short-term resistance.
Macroeconomic Headwinds Add Complexity to Bitcoin Path
Bitcoin’s performance has also become more correlated with traditional equities. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that both stocks and BTC are entering deep oversold territory.
“Revisiting the Bollinger Bands, we have gone from 2 standard deviations above-trend to almost 2 standard deviations below-trend,” Timmer said. His comment referred to the S&P 500, but applies to Bitcoin’s setup as well.
Network economist Timothy Peterson echoed this view. He noted that Bitcoin led the Nasdaq during the latest market downturn but may lag in its recovery.
Bitcoin and NASDAQ suffer deepening drawdowns. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
“Bitcoin led NASDAQ on this decline. I would expect NASDAQ to rally first, and then Bitcoin (BTC),” Peterson said. He added that a 10% drop in equities could still be pending.
Whales have re-entered the market aggressively, amassing over 100,000 BTC since March. While retail investors remain on the sidelines, large players appear to be preparing for the next major move.
Technical setups hint at a bullish breakout, with concentrated shorts above $90,000 offering fuel for a potential squeeze. At the same time, volatility indicators and macro headwinds underscore the risk of further downside.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
