Key Insights:
- Whale wallets remain inactive as retail traders fuel the recent surge
- Dogecoin breaks resistance with a confirmed ascending triangle breakout
- MACD bullish crossover signals a potential shift in the long-term price trend
Dogecoin price surged over 28% in five days, rising from $0.131 on Apr. 7 to $0.168. The move followed a confirmed breakout above key resistance, while whale wallets remained flat.
On-chain and technical data pointed to retail-led momentum. Indicators such as the MACD crossover and positive funding rates supported the case for continued upward pressure.
Whales Quiet as Dogecoin Price Rises
In the past week, Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen its price increase steadily, rising to $0.168 at the time of writing from a low of $0.131 on April 7. This is over a 28% gain in five days. Even though this is an upward movement, on-chain data reveals that large DOGE holders are not active.
According to data from Santiment shared by ali_charts, wallets holding more than one billion DOGE have been flat since April 8. Their total holding changed very little, from about 71.43 billion DOGE to 71.37 billion DOGE. This implies that in the last 96 hours, there have been no whale buys or sells.
The lack of movement from major holders indicates that retail traders and smaller market participants are driving the price. It can result in higher volatility and faster price swings if support levels are broken or volume dries up. It may also indicate that it is growing interested in smaller investors rather than relying on large capital inflows.
Dogecoin Price Technical Pattern Confirms Breakout
Meanwhile, technical analyst TATrader_Alan recently said that Dogecoin price recently broke out of an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This is a chart pattern that is commonly seen during uptrends, as it forms a horizontal resistance level with a rising support below it.
The resistance level was near $0.158 in this case. Between April 9 and April 11, Dogecoin tried to break above this level several times. Finally, it broke through on April 12 to rally to $0.168.
This triangle pattern base was formed from approximately $0.129 to $0.158. The height of the triangle gives a potential breakout target at $0.187. Such price projections are not guaranteed, but they do guide short-term trader decisions.
In general, a breakout pattern is stronger if it occurs with volume. While volume data was not included in the shared chart, the strong upward move indicates that buyers were prepared to push past recent resistance levels.
MACD Signal Suggests Trend Shift
There is another bullish signal for Dogecoin, as the 3-day MACD indicator showed a bullish crossover in early April. Similar crossovers in the past have preceded price rallies, as TATrader_Alan also highlighted.
When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is a bullish MACD crossover. This has happened historically prior to major DOGE rallies. Such a crossover occurred in September 2024, when DOGE went from $0.06 to over $0.35. The price went from $0.12 to $0.58 in another one in late 2024.
The current MACD crossover is in line with the recent price rise from $0.131 to $0.168. The current upward movement is supported by this technical signal. The MACD is a lagging indicator, so it shows price action that has already occurred and traders may use it in conjunction with other indicators to time better.
Funding Rates and Market Sentiment
According to Coinglass, Dogecoin’s open interest (OI) weighted funding rate has been slightly positive since the beginning of April. If the funding rate is positive, traders holding long positions are paying fees to traders holding shorts. It occurs when more people are betting that the price will go up.
From Mar. 20 to Apr. 5, the funding rate stayed negative and price declined toward $0.12. After turning positive in early April, DOGE rose past $0.16.
A healthy funding rate below 0.01% signals optimism without excessive leverage. This trend supports sustained upward movement without major liquidation risks.
Together, the MACD signal, triangle breakout, and positive funding rate reflect a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. The move appears to be driven by renewed retail interest, not whale participation.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views and opinions stated by the author or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
