Highlights:
- BTC’s 4-year cycle shows 2025 as the likely third year of growth after 2023–2024 gains.
- BlackRock bought $2.5B in BTC last week, averaging $500M in daily accumulation.
- Bitcoin’s hash price sits near historic cycle bottoms seen before major rallies.
For over a decade, Bitcoin has followed a 4-year cycle of three years of growth and one of correction. In 2025, this rhythm might be repeating, with strong ETF inflows, steady whale accumulation, and miner revenue compression all suggesting rising pressure.
With demand increasing and supply tightening post halving, the stage may be set for another major breakout.
Historical Patterns Suggest a Familiar Setup in 2025
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has proven to have a strong 4-year cycle pattern. CryptoQuant’s yearly return chart shows the asset usually grows for three years and then corrects for one year.
For example, after a 5,549.2% increase in 2013, 2014 witnessed a steep 59.2% decline. The 1,287.4% increase in 2017 was then followed by a 72.2% decrease in 2018. It has repeated this rhythm across each halving cycle.
Bitcoin rose 92.9% and 299.1% in the 2020–2021 period and then fell 64.8% in 2022. This mirrored earlier bear phases. In 2023, BTC rebounded with a 156.5% gain.
The second leg of the cycle rose 118.7% by 2024. The price is almost flat at 0.7% so far in 2025, which could mean a third year of growth just starting.
If the 4-year pattern holds, 2025 would be the next breakout year. Major rally points were previous third years like 2017 and 2021. They both experienced exponential gains after moderate second-year returns.
Whale Accumulation Adds Buying Pressure
Technical patterns are promising, but institutional demand is becoming the central driver in this cycle. A post by Arkham Intelligence claims that BlackRock bought $2.5 Billion worth of Bitcoin in just one week. That equates to $500 Million a day in purchases.
The level of accumulation is rising and reflects increased institutional exposure. Regulated entities have been able to buy Bitcoin in bulk through the use of ETFs.
BlackRock is absorbing a lot of circulating supply, according to the data. Technically speaking, the BTC/USDT daily chart is in a consolidation mode after a late 2024 rally.
Similar inflows in May could create another supply squeeze in the market. The halving in April 2024 combined with reduced issuance and rising demand could see new price highs.
Hash Price Bottoming Out
Meanwhile, the hash price, which is miner revenue per unit of computing power, is another data point to watch. It is back in the lower range we saw during previous cycle bottoms. Hash price was between $0.05 and $1 per TH/s in 2017, 2020, and now 2025.
This compression period, however, has occurred just before large price expansions in past cycles. Based on the current hash price, miners are under revenue pressure. In the past, when BTC price is stable but hash price bottoms out, it leads to major upside moves. This setup is reminiscent of what happened before the 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
This happened three months before a major uptrend started in 2020. If the current hash price zone resolves in a similar way, a breakout could happen in the second half of 2025.
Price Action Nearing a Potential Breakout
Technically, the BTC/USDT daily chart is in a consolidation phase after a late 2024 rally. BTC surged from $65,000 to around $96,000 after the November 2024 FOMC meeting. The next FOMC meeting is on May 7, 2025.
If the prior move is repeated, the projected price target is close to $134,000. A symmetrical breakout move is seen in the vertical measurement.
At the time of writing, the price was trading at around $93,749.24, showing strength above key support levels. This could trigger the next leg higher if the Fed continues its dovish policy tone.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
