Key Insights:
- XRP price trades under $3 as ETF approval odds reach 100%.
- Expert project XRP price may surge to $33 if ETF momentum continues.
- Whale scoops $48M XRP, fueling optimism ahead of October SEC reviews.
XRP price is under the spotlight as ETF approval odds reach 100%. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas suggested that crypto ETFs, including XRP, would be virtually guaranteed clearance. This has led to higher expectations for a breakout, although critical levels must be maintained, according to technical analysts.
XRP Price Stalls Below $3 Resistance
XRP price is still struggling to break above the $3 level, a decisive threshold for bullish momentum. According to CasiTrades, the recent upward movement isn’t a five-wave impulse, it’s a clear corrective ABC movement.
The analyst saw bearish divergences forming on the four-hour timeframe. Support remains at $2.79 and $2.58. If these levels are maintained, the bullish structure remains intact. A break below $2.58 would, however, be very negative for the general outlook and limit further upside potential.
CasiTrades added that resistance was at the levels of $3, $3.00, and $3.25. Price hesitation near these marks would solidify the bearish divergences. Until now, negative testing can still be probable with ETF-fueled optimism.
Crypto ETF Approval Odds
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas recently declared ETF approval odds for XRP and other crypto products as “100%.” He explained that new listing requirements no longer require traditional 19b-4 filings. This leaves just S-1 approvals with the SEC’s Corporation Finance division.
Source: X | Eric Balchunas
The SEC has already requested that issuers withdraw older filings. Applications from Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and CoinShares are now scheduled for review in October.
Market platform Polymarket also reflected rising confidence, showing XRP ETF approval odds above 99%.
With delay notices expiring and multiple issuers updating their submissions, the momentum suggests that approval is a matter of timing.
Whale Accumulation Fuels Optimism
Besides analysts, whale activity has helped strengthen market confidence. It was reported that a French finance insider had bought almost 48 million worth of XRP. Notably, this single purchase represented the rising institutional interest in positioning before ETF approval.
Whales still accumulate, echoing past cycles when such a trend preceded strong rallies. Analysts believe that this kind of trade could gain momentum when regulated access to ETFs is granted. Additionally, whale inflows provide the liquidity base for a breakout above resistance.
Market observers highlighted the impact of Bitcoin on the movement of XRP. Analysts note that if Bitcoin remains bullish, XRP is likely to gain directly. The correlation between the two assets tends to amplify price movements, particularly in ETF-based markets.
Analyst Projects $33 XRP Price Target
EGRAG Crypto projects the XRP price could reach $33 if bullish catalysts align with ETF approvals. He pointed to historical cycles where XRP price rose 350% in 2017 and more than 100% in 2021. Similar conditions, he pointed out, are building up again.
The analyst said that the next phase of the rally could start in late November 2025. There are stronger underlying factors within the ecosystem that support this perspective. The XRP Ledger has recently introduced upgrades that enable advanced tools, including tokenized swaps tied to institutional funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL and VanEck’s VBill.
However, his lower time frame charts depicted an anomaly. Delta volume plummeted to -200%, while the volume of recorded buys fell to zero.
This meant that almost every trade had a sales dominance, with more than 357,000 XRP being sold without counter-buying. He said it had never been seen before and is a sign of possible manipulation.
EGRAG cautioned that a sustained lack of outside buy-side support would exacerbate losses. Monitoring higher time frames will confirm whether this was an isolated anomaly or a sustained bearish force.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.