- Bitcoin price is hanging in the balance as coins moved from long-term to short-term holders.
- Analysts say $112,000 is the key level that could mark a new upward trend.
- Hunter Horsley suggests the bear phase may have started earlier than expected.
The Bitcoin price remains fragile as realized dominance rises, with coins shifting between long-term and short-term holders.
The shift shows changing market behavior that could signal the end of the current correction.
Bitcoin now trades near $102,000, with $112,000 seen as the key price to watch in early November.
Bitcoin Realized Dominance Shows What Holders Are Doing
Bitcoin’s realized dominance measures how much of the network’s total value belongs to short-term and long-term holders.
It gives a clearer view of real market activity because it looks at the actual money invested rather than the total market value.
In July 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $120,000, data showed a large change in holder behavior.
Long-term holders began selling to take profit, which increased the amount of Bitcoin owned by newer investors.
At that time, long-term holders controlled about 55% of the realized value. That number later dropped to 46% as coins changed hands.
Notably, the shift marked a period known as distribution, where experienced investors sell while new buyers enter the market.
By October, both short- and long-term holders were selling. Many of the new investors had bought coins near the market price.
So when prices fell, some sold at a loss. This added to the downward pressure and pushed sentiment lower.
Even with the recent drop, many new holders appear willing to keep their coins longer.
Market watchers noted that this shows stronger confidence among recent buyers. It also suggests that the current correction could be close to ending.
The overall pattern reflects long-term holders taking profit while new investors build positions with more patience.
Horsley Thinks the Market May Have Shifted Early
Hunter Horsley, the Chief Executive Officer of Bitwise, shared his thoughts on the recent market trend.
He said the expected timing of the next bear market may have changed.
In his view, many investors believed the market would turn down in 2026, following the usual Bitcoin price four-year cycle.
Because so many expected that, the market may have adjusted earlier than planned.
He explained that the current weakness could already represent that bear phase, only arriving sooner than most expected.
Horsley added that markets evolve as investor behavior changes and that past cycles may no longer predict future ones in the same way.
His comment reflects a wider view that Bitcoin might not follow the same patterns as in previous years.
It is worth stating that the market now includes more participants, more trading tools, and more attention than before.
This could mean faster reactions to investor expectations, leading to earlier corrections and recoveries.
Key Level for Bitcoin Price: $112,000 Marks a Turning Point
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe said that $112,000 remains the most important Bitcoin price level to watch.
If Bitcoin breaks above that level, it could move toward a new high. He added that any price below $112,000 could still be seen as a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
As of this publication, Bitcoin price was trading near $102,440, about 20% below its all-time high.
The cryptocurrency’s market value stood at $2.04 trillion, with daily trading volume around $83.35 billion.
Below $103,000, expectations of BTC reaching $85,000–$94,000 range are very high.
While the market has weakened, the data on realized dominance points to growing confidence among newer holders.
It suggests that selling pressure might slow down soon. As coins move from long-term to short-term investors and holding behavior steadies, the correction phase may be nearing its end.
It is worth noting that, despite the crypto market’s current uncertainty, some indicators now suggest a potential recovery.
The balance between holders is shifting again, and the next move may depend on whether Bitcoin can regain strength above $112,000.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.
