Key Insights
- Gold price climbed above $4,300 after weak U.S. payroll data triggered a sharp weekly rally.
- U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, cutting expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
- Gold traders are watching $4,380 and $4,550 as resistance levels after bullion reached a seven-week high.
Gold prices jumped on Friday after July payroll data showed an unexpected contraction in the U.S. labor market.
Spot gold traded around $4,336 late Friday after rising more than 3% intraday. Bullion gained over 7% for the week, its strongest weekly performance since January.
The weaker jobs report reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in September.
Gold had already moved above $4,300 before the report. Softer labor data then pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, supporting further gains.
Weak Payrolls Lift Gold Price Above $4,300
U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data reported by Reuters.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected payrolls to increase by 80,000.
June employment growth was also revised down to 20,000. May and June payroll gains were reduced by a combined 103,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%. However, that decline partly reflected a shrinking labor force. Labor-force participation fell to 61.4%, its lowest level in nearly five-and-a-half years.
July represented the first monthly decline in nonfarm payrolls in five months. Gold responded quickly to the report.
Spot bullion rose 2.3% to $4,336.02 by late Friday trading after gaining more than 3% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 2.3% higher at $4,399.70.
The dollar also weakened while Treasury yields declined as markets reduced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
Gold Price Chart Points to $4,550
EGRAG CRYPTO’s monthly gold price prediction maps a recovery zone between $4,380 and $4,550. The chart treats that area as a possible Wave 2 top within its broader Elliott Wave structure. Gold price now trades close enough to the lower boundary for the $4,380 level to serve as the first nearby test.
Gold price prediction places greater attention on $4,550, which sits above the current resistance band. Under the analyst’s framework, a decisive monthly close above $4,550 would cancel the bearish setup and allow for a larger upward structure.
Fed Rate Odds Fall as Dollar Weakens
Interest-rate markets cut the probability of a September Fed hike after the payroll report. Data showed a 43.9% chance of a September increase, down from 57% before the data. The probability of no rate change rose as traders reassessed the labor market and the Fed’s next policy step.
Lower rate expectations often support gold, as the metal does not pay interest. The dollar index also fell after the jobs report, while Treasury yields moved lower. Those moves reduced some pressure on bullion after markets had recently priced a stronger chance of another Fed rate increase.
Gold price also drew support from lower oil prices and softer near-term energy inflation expectations. Crude prices headed for a weekly decline as U.S.-Iran discussions raised expectations for progress around the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices can ease inflation pressure and reduce expectations for tighter monetary policy.
Silver and platinum also gained during Friday trading as precious metals moved higher across the session. Silver traded above $63, while platinum traded near $1,746. Gold, however, posted the larger macro move as payrolls shifted rate expectations and weakened the dollar.
Meanwhile, Gold price prediction places $3,850 as the first major downside level if gold fails near the $4,380 to $4,550 zone. The chart marks $3,455 as another support area, with the moving average near $3,400. A larger gap on the chart also sits around that region and forms part of the analyst’s bearish path. The longer-term roadmap extends lower toward $2,500 to $2,000 if the projected correction develops fully.
Moses K is a crypto journalist covering markets, regulation, and blockchain trends. He has written for The Coin Republic, Coinchapter, Cryptopolitan, Cryptotale, Coinspeaker, and MPost. Known for his concise, data-driven reporting, Moses focuses on price analysis, on-chain metrics, and policy developments shaping the global digital asset landscape.
