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Bitcoin’s rebound stalled near $78,000 on Sept. 3 as spot demand weakened after August’s rally. The Bitcoin price prediction now depends on buyers defending nearby moving-average support while reclaiming resistance above $78,000. TradingView data showed BTC near $77,900 during the latest four-hour session.
The slowdown mattered because Bitcoin entered September after gaining about 25% during August. Coinbase said that monthly advance marked Bitcoin’s best performance in a year. However, weaker spot absorption and uneven exchange-traded fund flows left the rally exposed to renewed selling.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Faces Weak Demand Near $78K
TradingView’s four-hour chart showed Bitcoin trading around $77,892 on Sept. 3. Price sat above the 20-period exponential moving average near $77,748. It also remained above the 50-period average around $77,556 and the 100-period average near $75,516.
Those levels kept the short-term structure constructive despite the pullback from August highs. However, price remained below the recent resistance band near $79,000 to $80,000. The chart showed repeated failures around that zone since late August.
Momentum also remained weak. The moving average convergence divergence histogram turned slightly positive, while both signal lines stayed below zero. That setup showed improving short-term momentum without confirming a broader bullish reversal.
Rain wrote on X that Bitcoin’s apparent demand turned negative after briefly recovering in August. The analyst said BTC had fallen toward $76,400 as older coin supply faced weaker absorption. Rain argued that weakening spot demand mattered more than the $77,000 level alone.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Meets Mixed ETF Flows
Farside Investors data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted $236.5 million in net outflows on Sept. 1. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $201.2 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $43.7 million.
Flows reversed one session later. Farside data showed the funds attracted $101.1 million on Sept. 2. BlackRock’s fund drew $115.4 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $56.2 million in outflows.
That reversal reduced immediate pressure but did not establish consistent institutional demand. Coinbase had already flagged weak crypto-native demand in its Aug. 7 institutional commentary. The exchange said macro relief had failed to generate stronger Bitcoin upside.
Coinbase’s Sept. 2 market update provided another measure of August’s strength. The exchange said BTC gained 25% during the month before slipping alongside stocks and bonds. That move placed September’s pullback against a much stronger preceding advance. It also raised the burden on buyers to sustain follow-through above nearby resistance.
Holder Data Shows Selling Pressure Remains Active
CryptoQuant data through Sept. 1 showed 663,215 BTC classified under profit-taking investor behavior. Another 324,767 BTC sat within the loss-seller cohort. The dataset excluded exchange balances and grouped addresses at the entity level.
CryptoQuant’s holder-profit data also showed mixed positioning. Short-term holders controlled 9.426% of supply in profit and 2.619% in loss. Long-term holders held 61.033% in profit, while 26.923% remained in loss.
A separate CryptoQuant dataset showed short-term holders generated 48.87% of realized profit activity. Their realized-loss share stood at 4.092%. Long-term holders contributed 22.694% of realized profits and 24.345% of realized losses.
Those figures showed profit realization had returned without producing a clear capitulation signal. They also supported the view that existing holders alone could not sustain another leg higher. Fresh spot demand remained the main variable for the BTC crypto market.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Watches $75.5K Support
The first downside area sits near the 100-period exponential moving average around $75,516. A sustained break below that level would weaken the four-hour structure and expose the $73,500 area cited by Rei Researcher.
Rei Researcher said Bitcoin had held above the exchange-traded fund and short-term-holder cost bases for roughly one week. The researcher viewed $73,500 as the first level buyers had to defend. Fresh capital, rather than reduced selling, remained the deciding factor.
On the upside, Bitcoin first faces the recent $78,000 to $80,000 resistance region. Jelle wrote on X that BTC remained below key resistance where a break could flip market structure. Until that happens, the bitcoin price USD structure remains range-bound rather than confirmed bullish.
The next verifiable test is a four-hour close above the recent resistance cluster. Failure there keeps $75,516 and $73,500 in focus. A break above $80,000 would give buyers their clearest confirmation since late August.
