Key Insights:
- Tesla stock price could be at risk of a crash as key risks unfold.
- Its Indian business is struggling as it sold only 800 vehicles.
- The company’s EV credit business is also facing major headwinds.
Tesla stock price has jumped by over 56% from its lowest point this year as bets on its robotaxi business rose. Still, the company faces major risks that may drag it lower by 35% in the coming days. These risks include the ongoing performance of Bitcoin treasury companies, the Big Beautiful Bill, and the crash in sales in key markets.
Tesla Stock Price at Risk as Bitcoin Treasury Companies Struggle
One major risk that could hurt the Tesla stock price is that Bitcoin treasury companies are not doing well. This is notable since Tesla is the eleventh-biggest Bitcoin holder with 11,509 coins worth over $1.27 billion.
Tesla’s BTC holdings have been strong performer over time as the company’s average cost was $33,530, much lower than the current $109,000. A quick look shows that most Bitcoin treasury companies like Metaplanet and Strategy have all slumped this year.
On the positive side, Tesla is different from these companies since Bitcoin represents just a tiny part of it balance sheet.
Tesla Sales in Key Markets are Struggling
One of the top Tesla news today was a report that it sold just 600 vehicles in India since its entry into the market in July. 800 is a small number considering that Indians buy thousands of vehicles each month.
The main reason for this is that the cheapest vehicle that Tesla is selling in India costs almost $70,000 because of tariffs. Most Indians are not yet comfortable spending a significant amount on an EV.
The same issue is happening in Europe, where its sales have plunged this year. A report released last week showed that its sales in Europe plunged by 40% in August as BYD and other brands like Volkswagen surged.
Tesla’s Chinese sales have also stagnated as it competes with tens of local brands that are making good-quality vehicles for the local market.
Most importantly, sales are expected to plummet in the United States after Donald Trump ended the $7,500 subsidy for EV buyers.
Emission Credit Revenue
Tesla stock price may also plunge as Trump has ended the only business that is growing: EV tax credits. The most recent results showed that the segment’s revenue grew by 17% to $3.04 billion. In contrast, the automotive and energy generation and storage plunge by 16% and 1% YoY.
One part of Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill called for ending the EV tax credits that Tesla receives from other polluters. The Trump administration argues that ending the credit will make vehicles much cheaper.
Therefore, it is likely that Tesla’s sales will continue decelerating when this credit ends fully.
Tesla is Highly Overvalued
Tesla has always been a highly overvalued company. During this period, proponents have argued that its market share, better technology, and growth justify this valuation.
Today, however, things have changed as its market share, revenue growth, and profitability metrics have slowed. As such, it is hard to justify its current valuation as its forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 178. In contrast, NVIDIA, a growing company, has multiple of less than 50.
TSLA Stock Price Analysis
The daily timeframe is sending mixed signals about the TSLA stock price. This chart shows that it has slowly formed a symmetrical triangle pattern whose two lines are about to converge. The money flow index (MFI), which is a unique type of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped and moved below 50.
The stock also remains above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, a positive sign. Still, its weak fundamentals means that the Tesla stock price may plunge soon, and possibly retest the support at $213, down by 35% from the current level.
Conversely, a move above the upper side of the triangle pattern at $355 will invalidate the bearish Tesla stock price forecast and point to more gains.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
Crispus is a distinguished Financial Analyst at, bringing over 12 years of expertise in cryptocurrency markets, specializing in Bitcoin and altcoins. Renowned for his sharp insights at the nexus of market trends and breaking news, Crispus delivers actionable analysis to empower investors. His work is prominently featured across leading platforms, including BanklessTimes, CoinJournal, HypeIndex, SeekingAlpha, Forbes, InvestingCube, Investing.com, and MoneyTransfers.com, cementing his reputation as a trusted voice in the financial world.
