Key Insights
- Polymarket’s triumphant US return begins with the launch of the app on the Apple App Store.
- The platform states that it will start with sports, and the rest will follow.
- The prediction market volume for November exceeded $14 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket collectively accounting for over $10 billion.
Blockchain-based predictions platform Polymarket has launched its US app. It announced the launch on X with a video clip detailing what it considers a triumphant return to the country.
According to Polymarket, its app is now available on the Apple App Store. Users can download the app to join the waitlist.
Polymarket to Start with the Sports Market
The launch of a US app comes three years after Polymarket was forced to exit the US due to regulatory scrutiny in 2022. The platform had to pay a fine to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for offering unregistered event contracts.
Since then, it has grown to become one of the biggest prediction market platforms in the world. It gained prominence during the US presidential election by offering bets on the election’s outcome. Its correct prediction of the 2024 election outcome and endorsement by President Trump contributed to its growth.
Interestingly, Polymarket plans to launch its US app with the sports market as its initial focus. It is categorized under sports on the App Store, although it plans to offer event contracts in other markets in the future.
It said:
“We’re launching with sports — followed by markets on everything.”
The platform’s return to the US was long expected after it acquired licensed derivatives exchange QCEX for $112 million in July. It also got a no-action letter from the CFTC in September. The final approval came in November with an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC, allowing it to operate as an intermediated trading platform.
Meanwhile, Polymarket’s decision to start with sports events is likely due to the prevalence of sports betting in the prediction market. On the US-based Kalshi, sports events account for a sizable percentage of all contracts. Polymarket has already partnered with the National Hockey League.
Prediction Market Volume Nears $15 Billion in November
Polymarket’s return to the US comes amid a massive surge in interest in the prediction market. The sector has experienced explosive growth over the past three months, accompanied by a significant increase in notional trading volume.
After months of a monthly volume of around $2 billion from February to August, it surged in September to nearly $5 billion in volume. That increased to over $9 billion in October and November and has now seen over $14 billion in volume.
Three platforms account for most of the trading volume, according to Artemis. Kalshi is the current market leader, with $5.8 billion in revenue last month, while Polymarket had $4.3 billion. Opinion also recorded $4.2 billion, a massive growth for the emerging platform backed by Changpeng Zhao’s owned Yzi Labs.
With Polymarket now launching its US app, many expect that the competition with Kalshi will become more intense. Kalshi has already made a crypto play by offering its event contracts on the Solana blockchain.
However, competition in the sector might evolve beyond a two-horse race by 2026. Other companies, including FanDuel, DraftKings, and Robinhood, are expected to launch their own prediction market apps.
Oluwapelumi Adejumo is an experienced cryptocurrency journalist who has contributed to leading blockchain news platforms, including CryptoSlate and BeInCrypto.
