Key Insights:
- Analysts warn that Bitcoin price must reclaim the 0.85 quantile at $106,200 to avoid deeper market stress.
- Unrealized losses among top buyers have climbed to 7.1 million BTC, the highest in more than a year.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.2 billion in outflows in November, signaling weakening institutional demand.
- Some experts believe Bitcoin’s downside is limited if major holders like Strategy retain most of their 650,000 BTC.
Bitcoin price has shown signs of recovery, surging back above $93,000 as bullish sentiment resumes. However, with 25% BTC supply still underwater, Glassnode data shows that the market structure is similar to Q1 2022.
It added that demand is weakening across the spot, futures, and ETF markets. Furthermore, with the MSTR stock mNAV falling under 1, risks are rising that the Strategy would begin selling its BTC.
Bitcoin Price Chart Resembles That of Q1 2022
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that Bitcoin is currently trading near the “True Market Mean. Analysts note that this level historically separates routine corrections from deeper bear-market phases.
While BTC has managed to remain above the threshold, the market structure is similar to that in Q1 2022. The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model shows the spot Bitcoin price trading below the 0.75 quantile.
It has stayed under $96,100 since mid-November. This places more than 25% of the circulating supply at an unrealized loss.
Analysts warn that top-buyer capitulation remains a risk. Thus, they say that BTC should ensure a sustained recovery above the 0.85 quantile, i.e. $106,200, to restore market stability.
Bitcoin Unrealized Losses The Highest In A Year
Glassnode reports that Bitcoin’s top-buyer cohorts are now experiencing their highest levels of unrealized losses in more than a year. The 7-day SMA of Total Supply in Loss rose to 7.1 million BTC last week.
Experts further noted that the current 5–7 million BTC loss range mirrors the sideways market movement of 2022. Holding above the True Market Mean is crucial for the Bitcoin price. It helps prevent the asset from sliding into a prolonged bear market.
Despite these structural similarities, capital inflows remain modestly positive. Glassnode highlights that the Net Change in Realized Cap is currently +$8.69 billion per month. This is well below the July 2025 peak but still above zero.
Amid this strong capital momentum, the True Market Mean can function as a consolidation. It could also serve as a bottom formation zone, instead of a breakdown trigger.
In the spot market, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs are showing a clear drop in demand. This is apparent with the $4.2 billion outflows last month in November. It also highlights a drop in the institutional appetite for fresh capital allocation to Bitcoin.
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have happened across all US issuers. Analysts note that the decline in ETF demand is now contributing to a weaker overall market structure.
Bitcoin Price Won’t See a 2022-Like Correction If MSTR Supports
The MSTR stock has fallen more than 50% from its peak. Thus, concerns have surged that the company could sell its Bitcoins to meet debt obligations. This has led to an additional negative sentiment around BTC.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin is unlikely to face a severe drawdown similar to 2022. He believes the Bitcoin price downside is limited if Strategy keeps its 650,000 BTC position. The risk also stays contained if they sell only marginally.
Ju noted that the Bitcoin price is currently about 25% below its all-time high. Even if a bear phase emerges, the downside will likely stay limited. It may resemble a broad sideways range instead of a deep correction.
He added that long-term holders should avoid panic selling. Ju believes that Bitcoin now benefits from stronger liquidity channels and a more mature market structure. This reinforces a robust long-term outlook.
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair for understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draws his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In his free time, he reads thriller fiction novels and sometimes explores his culinary skills.
