Coinbase Stock Forecast as Options Markets Predict a Rebound After Earnings

Coinbase stock traded sideways ahead of its second-quarter earnings report on July 30.

COIN traded near $159 on Tuesday after remaining inside a broad range since June. Options positioning showed more calls than puts, although that reading did not guarantee a bullish earnings reaction.

Coinbase will publish its second-quarter results after the market closes on Thursday. The company will hold a question-and-answer session at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time.

Investors will focus on trading revenue, USDC income, operating costs and Coinbase’s expanding prediction-market business.

Options Market Points to a Coinbase Stock Rebound

The options market is one of the most common indicators of how companies react after their earnings report. Data shows that the options expiring on July 31 have a put volume of 14,462 compared to call volume of 21,293. This gives it a put/call volume ratio of 0.68.

The same is happening with the put open interest of 33,187 and calls of 64,151, resulting in a put/call ratio of 0.52. A put gives the holder the option to sell an asset at a specified price before an expiration date. Similarly, a call gives one an option to buy an asset in this period.

A low put/call open interest ratio below 1 means that there are more calls than puts, which is happening with Coinbase. Still, what is evident is that the COIN stock will experience high volatility after earnings, with the implied volatility being at 118.4%.

Looking at the strike prices, most of the open interest in the calls and puts stands at $175 and $155. With the COIN stock trading at $163, these numbers mean that its upside will likely be 7.36%, with its downside being about 5%.

Coinbase is Facing Major Challenges as the Crypto Winter Continues

The upcoming earnings come at a time when Coinbase is facing substantial challenges, which explains why the short interest has jumped to 12%.

Its main challenge is that the crypto winter is still underway. Bitcoin price has plunged from a record high of $126,300 to the current $64,000. Ethereum has dived to $1,875, while the market capitalization of all coins has fallen to $2.15 trillion from the record high of over $4 trillion.

Crypto exchanges normally struggle whenever prices are in a freefall. This explains why a company like BitMart collapsed this week. Coinbase itself has had to announce huge layoffs.

The company will also be affected by the ongoing USDC market capitalization retreat. Data shows that its market cap has dropped from over $80 billion to $73 billion today. This retreat will affect one of its core businesses.

Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue jumped from $910 million in 2024 to $1.3 billion last year. Its last quarterly results showed that its stablecoin business made $305 million, up from $274 million in the same period last year.

On the positive side, the company has diversified its revenue sources over the past few years. It has now expanded its business from cryptocurrencies and is becoming an exchange for everything. It offers stocks and ETFs and is growing in the prediction market.

Coinbase Stock Price Technical Analysis

The weekly chart shows that COIN stock has plunged from a high of $444.80 in June last year to a low of $143. A closer look shows that the stock has bottomed at $143, its lowest level in September 2024, April 2025, February, and June this year. That is a sign that bears are afraid of shorting below that level.

The stock has now formed a quadruple bottom pattern whose neckline is at $444. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the stock will bounce back, possibly to the key resistance at $200. On the flip side, a move below the key support level of $143 wil invalidate the bullish outlook.