Key Highlights:
- BTC’s Network Activity Index has declined sharply since December 2024.
- Open Interest Delta dropped near -$15B, suggesting leveraged exits and profit-taking.
- BTC trades between CME futures gaps at $91.9K–$93.4K and $96.4K–$97.3K.
Network activity is dropping, and open interest delta is turning sharply negative, a sign of a cooling phase in Bitcoin.
The price remains confined between two CME futures gaps, signaling a range-bound market. Investors are approaching short-term moves with caution as the market transitions.
Network Activity Drops Sharply Since December
The on-chain metrics of Bitcoin continue to cool. CryptoQuant’s Network Activity Index shows that the metric has fallen steadily since December 2024.
The network is currently in a ‘bear phase’ with low transaction volumes. Additionally, the number of daily active addresses is steadily declining.
The drop in activity resembles past bear markets and periods of reduced demand. One notable example was the network slowdown during the China mining ban in mid-2021.
This bearish network trend is also supported by fewer unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) and lower demand for block space. Multi-timeframe moving averages of network activity remain compressed.
Shorter-timeframe metrics like the 30-day and 60-day averages are positioned below longer-timeframe averages.
This trend suggests weakening momentum in network activity. This usually indicates a contraction phase in which user engagement and transaction flows decline.
Open Interest Delta Shows Heavy Position Fluctuations
The Aggregated Open Interest Delta provides further insight into recent market behavior. Both long and short positions have sharp reversals in the 7-day and 30-day views throughout April and early May.
Several spikes in positive open interest change also occurred during April in line with Bitcoin price moves towards $70,000. Nevertheless, by May 2025, both charts indicate a sharp decrease in position sizes.
Open interest delta went negative again, and numbers fell to -$15 Billion, especially on the 30-day view.
This suggests that traders may have closed leveraged positions because of uncertainty. With price stagnation, negative deltas tend to show up when profit-taking or sidelined capital is being shifted.
In the short term, this also reduces volatility but allows for new build-ups if momentum returns. Meanwhile, it was mixed but positive in week 18 of the weekly price action of Bitcoin. According to Coinvo, the average price was $95,219.21, with a weekly gain of +0.38%.
Friday was the strongest day-on-day performance, ending with a +2.33% increase. Following Tuesday with +1.30%, the rest of the week was mostly flat or slightly negative. The steepest fall was on Sunday, -0.96%.
This distribution is often seen during the phases of lower conviction. From midweek to Friday, buyers appear more active, while weekend sessions are more about outflows or risk-off.
Although flat performance, a lack of aggressive selling pressure can sometimes be a basis for price consolidation.
CME Futures Gaps Create Key Price Targets
Two pending price gaps have been revealed in the Bitcoin CME Futures chart. There is still some space left in the lower gap between $91,990 and $93,400. The drop on May 4 has yet to be touched in the upper gap, between $96,480 and $97,300.
These gaps are essential for retracement or rally targets. Futures market gaps are created when the price closes at one level but opens at another without any trading in between. Markets tend to try to ‘fill’ these price voids, and so they attract attention.
Bitcoin is currently trading between the two levels at around $94,900. A break below current prices could target the lower gap, while a push above $96,000 could try to fill the upper one.
Broader Context: Still in Transition Phase
However, Bitcoin is still trading above $90,000, and onchain and derivative data suggest a period of low momentum and repositioning. Reduced open interest and lower transaction demand indicate that traders are being cautious.
Steady price action, futures gaps, and low network activity characterize this transitional period. This phase is not sharply bearish but could be a deeper correction or a foundation for further price moves.
The market is responding more to macro liquidity than to individual narratives. Activity may stay low until a significant catalyst emerges. Bitcoin is in a neutral range, moving within its consolidation structure.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and provides no financial, investment, or other advice. The author or any people mentioned in this article are not responsible for any financial loss that may occur from investing in or trading. Please do your research before making any financial decisions.
